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CORSIA Market Forecast

Supply constraints could push CORSIA prices above $50

Insurance is emerging as a critical enabler of the global aviation carbon market, as new analysis from carbon market intelligence provider AlliedOffsets and carbon insurance provider Artio reveals that constraints on insurable supply, rather than issuance volumes alone, will define the trajectory of the global aviation offsetting scheme – CORSIA – in its first compliance phase.

The jointly published report shows that while the volume of eligible credits has more than doubled in the past year, from around 15 million to over 32 million, the proportion of credits that airlines can realistically access remains significantly constrained. This is due to a combination of host-country authorisation requirements, Article 6 progress, and the availability of insurance to de-risk transactions.