US Carbon Market Report: Buyers, CDR and the Cost of Standing Outside A6
AlliedOffsets’ report tracks the US carbon market’s buyer concentration problem and the price of sitting outside Article 6, from Microsoft accounting for 92% of US retirement volume in 2025, to a broadening buyer base in 2026 that still can’t offset the estimated $1.5-2.7 billion a year in CORSIA and Article 6 revenue the US is missing without a Letter of Authorization.
KEY FINDINGS
01
US projects lead the world in CCP-approved credit issuance and retirement, with 93M tons issued and 34M retired. well ahead of the next-largest markets. Bangladesh, Brazil and China are all climbing steadily.
02
US buyers take the large majority of their own market’s credits, rising from 63% of volume in 2024 to 82% in 2025 and settling at 77% in 2026. Canada, the UK and Japan lead international demand, but each remains small by comparison.
03
Microsoft alone accounts for 31% of total US retirement volume, almost double the UK’s leading buyer at 16%. Strip Microsoft out and the two markets look similarly concentrated. The company paused new removal offtakes in April 2026 but has since signed at least three new deals.
04
The US CDR buyer base has grown from 35 buyers in 2022 to 69 in 2026, already more than all of last year with the year barely half done. Volumes haven’t followed, at 2.9M tons against 28.6M for the whole of 2025.
05
US-hosted CORSIA-aligned supply outpaces domestic demand in every year through 2035, across all three scenarios. But no US project holds a Letter of Authorization, leaving an estimated $1.5-2.7B a year out of reach against a $3.9B ceiling.
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